Publications

Journal articles

Olsson, F., Carey, C. C., Boettiger, C., Harrison, G., Ladwig, R., Lapeyrolerie, M., Lewis, A. S. L., Lofton, M. E., Montetealegre-Mora, F., Rabaey, J. S., Robbins, C. J., Yang, X., Thomas, R. Q. 2024. What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge. ESS Open Archive Preprint. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171458144.44104603/v1

Olsson, F., Mackay, E. B., Spears, B. M., Barker, P., & Jones, I. D., 2024. Interacting impacts of hydrological changes and air temperature warming on lake temperatures highlight the potential for adaptive management. Ambio. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02015-6

Olsson, F., Moore, T. N., Carey, C. C., Breef‐Pilz, A., & Thomas, R. Q., 2024. A Multi‐Model Ensemble of Baseline and Process‐Based Models Improves the Predictive Skill of Near‐Term Lake Forecasts. Water Resour. Res., 60(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR035901

Box and arrow diagram of the generation of multi-model ensemble water temperature forecasts — Conceptual figure of the multi-model ensemble forecasting system developed in from Olsson et al., 2024.

Howard, D. W., Bentrup, J. A., Richardson, D. C., Lewis, A. S. L., Olsson, F., & Carey, C. C., 2024. Variability in ice cover does not affect annual metabolism estimates in a small eutrophic reservoir. J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo, 129, e2024JG008057., https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JG008057

Lewis, A. S. L., Breef‐Pilz, A., Howard, D. W., Lofton, M. E., Olsson, F., Wander, H. L., et al, 2024. Reservoir Drawdown Highlights the Emergent Effects of Water Level Change on Reservoir Physics, Chemistry, and Biology. J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo, 129(2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007780

Thomas, R.Q., C. Boettiger, C.C. Carey, M.C. Dietze, L.R. Johnson, M.A. Kenney, J.S. Mclachlan, J.A. Peters, E.R. Sokol, J.F. Weltzin, A. Willson, W.M. Woelmer, and Challenge Contributors, 2023. The NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 21(3), 112–113. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2616

Olsson, F., Mackay, E.B., Barker, P., Davies, S., Hall, R., Spears, B., Exley, G., Thackeray, S.J., Jones, I.D., 2022. Can reductions in water residence time be used to disrupt seasonal stratification and control internal loading in a eutrophic monomictic lake? J. Environ. Manage. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114169

Graphical abstract from Olsson et al., 2022 showing the hypothesised impacts of changes to water residence time on lake water quality.

Olsson, F., Mackay, E.B., Moore, T., Barker, P., Davies, S., Hall, R., Spears, B., Jones, I.D., 2022. Annual water residence time effects on thermal structure: A potential lake restoration measure? J. Environ. Manage. 314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115082

Moore, T., Mesman, J., Ladwig, R., Feldbauer, J., Olsson, F., Pilla, R.M., Shatwell, T., Venkiteswaran, J.J., Delany, A.D., Dugan, H., Rose, K.C., Read, J.S., 2021. LakeEnsemblR: An R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes. Environ. Model. Softw. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105101

Gray, E., Mackay, E. B., Olsson, F., Jones, I. D. Storm events can counteract atypically high thermal stability induced by climate warming in lakes. In prep.

Data, code, and software

Olsson, F., Mackay, E. B., Spears, B. M., Barker, P., & Jones, I. D., 2024. Interacting impacts of hydrological changes and climate warming on lake temperatures highlight the potential for adaptive management: Model output [dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10309370

Olsson, F., Mackay, E. B., & Jones, I. D., 2024. OlssonF/Ambio_adaptive_management: Interacting impacts of hydrological changes and air temperature warming on lake temperatures highlight the potential for adaptive management (v1.1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11193716

Olsson, F., Moore, T., Carey, C. C., Breef-Pilz, A., & Thomas, R. Q., 2023. OlssonF/FCRE-forecast-code: A multi-model ensemble of baseline and process-based models improves the predictive skill of near-term lake forecasts: code (v1.0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.8172783

Olsson, F., Moore, T., Carey, C. C., Breef-Pilz, A., & Thomas, R. Q., 2023. A multi-model ensemble of baseline and process-based models improves the predictive skill of near-term lake forecasts: data, forecasts, and scores [dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.8136961

Olsson, F., Mackay, E. M., Jones, I. D., Barker, P., & Spears, B., 2022. Elterwater inner basin: Physical, ecological and chemical lake measurements, 2018-19 [dataset]. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/37F17F6C-66F6-454C-BD52-7C601EF20CA2

Olsson, F., Mackay, E.B., Jones, I.D., Barker, P., Spears, B., 2022. Elterwater inner basin: Estimated inflow discharge and water temperature, 2012-2019 [dataset]. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/2883aaf1-6148-49cb-904a-d271a028c716

Tutorials

Olsson, F., Boettiger, C., Carey, C. C. Lofton, M. E. Thomas, R. Q., 2023. OlssonF/NEON-forecast-challenge-workshop: EFI NEON Forecast Challenge Workshop (v1.0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8316966

Virginia Ecoforecast Reservoir Analysis Forecasting Challenge introductory tutorial video series: