Publications

Journal articles

Olsson, F., Carey, C. C., Boettiger, C., Harrison, G., Ladwig, R., Lapeyrolerie, M. F., et al., 2025. What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge. Ecol. Appl., 35(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.70004

Olsson, F., Mackay, E. B., Spears, B. M., Barker, P., & Jones, I. D., 2025. Interacting impacts of hydrological changes and air temperature warming on lake temperatures highlight the potential for adaptive management. Ambio, 54(3), 402–415. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02015-6

Olsson, F., Boettiger, C., Carey, C. C., Lofton, M. E., Thomas, R. Q., 2024. Can you predict the future? A tutorial for the National Ecological Observatory Network Ecological Forecasting Challenge. JOSE, 7(82), 259. https://doi.org/10.21105/jose.00259

Olsson, F., Moore, T. N., Carey, C. C., Breef‐Pilz, A., & Thomas, R. Q., 2024. A Multi‐Model Ensemble of Baseline and Process‐Based Models Improves the Predictive Skill of Near‐Term Lake Forecasts. Water Resour. Res., 60(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR035901

Conceptual figure of the multi-model ensemble forecasting system from Olsson et al., 2024.

Howard, D. W., Bentrup, J. A., Richardson, D. C., Lewis, A. S. L., Olsson, F., & Carey, C. C., 2024. Variability in ice cover does not affect annual metabolism estimates in a small eutrophic reservoir. J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 129, e2024JG008057., https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JG008057

Woelmer, W. M., Thomas, R. Q., Olsson, F., Steele, B. G, Weathers, K. C, Carey, C. C., 2024. Process-based forecasts of lake water temperature and dissolved oxygen outperform null models, with variability over time and depth. Ecol. Inform., 83, 102825 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2024.102825

Lewis, A. S. L., Breef‐Pilz, A., Howard, D. W., Lofton, M. E., Olsson, F., Wander, H. L., et al, 2024. Reservoir Drawdown Highlights the Emergent Effects of Water Level Change on Reservoir Physics, Chemistry, and Biology. J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo, 129(2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007780

Mesman, J.P., Barbosa, C.C., Lewis, A.S., Olsson, F., Calhoun-Grosch, S., Grossart, H.P., Ladwig, R., La Fuente, R.S., Münzner, K., Nkwalale, L.G. and Pilla, R.M., 2024. Challenges of Open Data in aquatic sciences: issues faced by data users and data providers. Front. Environ. Sci., 12, 1497105. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1497105

Thomas, R.Q., C. Boettiger, C.C. Carey, M.C. Dietze, L.R. Johnson, M.A. Kenney, J.S. Mclachlan, J.A. Peters, E.R. Sokol, J.F. Weltzin, A. Willson, W.M. Woelmer, and Challenge Contributors, 2023. The NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge. Front. Ecol. Environ., 21(3), 112–113. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2616

Olsson, F., Mackay, E. B., Barker, P., Davies, S., Hall, R., Spears, B., et al., 2022. Can reductions in water residence time be used to disrupt seasonal stratification and control internal loading in a eutrophic monomictic lake? J. Environ. Manage., 304, 114169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114169

Graphical abstract from Olsson et al., 2022 showing the hypothesised impacts of changes to water residence time on lake water quality.

Olsson, F., Mackay, E.B., Moore, T., Barker, P., Davies, S., Hall, R., Spears, B., Jones, I.D., 2022. Annual water residence time effects on thermal structure: A potential lake restoration measure? J. Environ. Manage, 314(April). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115082

Moore, T. N., Mesman, J. P., Ladwig, R., Feldbauer, J., Olsson, F., Pilla, R. M., et al., 2021. LakeEnsemblR: An R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes. Environ. Model. Soft., 143, 105101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105101

Data, code, and software (first author only)

Olsson, F., Carey, C. C., Boettiger, C., Harrison, G., Ladwig, R., Lapeyrolerie, M., Lewis, A. S. L., Montetealegre-Mora, F., Rabaey, J. S., Robbins, C. J., Yang, X., & Thomas, R. Q., 2024. What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge: model archive [dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13750779

Olsson, F., Thomas, R. Q., & Carey, C. C., 2024. What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge: scripts. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13904345

Olsson, F., Mackay, E. B., Spears, B. M., Barker, P., & Jones, I. D., 2024. Interacting impacts of hydrological changes and climate warming on lake temperatures highlight the potential for adaptive management: Model output [dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10309370

Olsson, F., Mackay, E. B., & Jones, I. D., 2024. OlssonF/Ambio_adaptive_management: Interacting impacts of hydrological changes and air temperature warming on lake temperatures highlight the potential for adaptive management (v1.1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11193716

Olsson, F., Moore, T., Carey, C. C., Breef-Pilz, A., & Thomas, R. Q., 2023. OlssonF/FCRE-forecast-code: A multi-model ensemble of baseline and process-based models improves the predictive skill of near-term lake forecasts: code (v1.0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.8172783

Olsson, F., Moore, T., Carey, C. C., Breef-Pilz, A., & Thomas, R. Q., 2023. A multi-model ensemble of baseline and process-based models improves the predictive skill of near-term lake forecasts: data, forecasts, and scores [dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.8136961

Olsson, F., Mackay, E. M., Jones, I. D., Barker, P., & Spears, B., 2022. Elterwater inner basin: Physical, ecological and chemical lake measurements, 2018-19 [dataset]. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/37F17F6C-66F6-454C-BD52-7C601EF20CA2

Olsson, F., Mackay, E.B., Jones, I.D., Barker, P., Spears, B., 2022. Elterwater inner basin: Estimated inflow discharge and water temperature, 2012-2019 [dataset]. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/2883aaf1-6148-49cb-904a-d271a028c716

Tutorials

Olsson, F., Robbins, C. J., & Thomas, R. Q., 2025. OlssonF/Forecast-evaluation-EFI25: EFI 2025 - Forecast Evaluation workshop (v1.0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15587490

Olsson, F., Carey, C. C., Breef-Pilz, A., Delany, A., Lofton, M. E., Shukla, R., & Thomas, R. Q., 2025. LTREB-reservoirs/vera4cast-example: VERA Forecasting Challenge example code repository and tutorial (v1.0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15537787

Olsson, F., Boettiger, C., Carey, C. C. Lofton, M. E. Thomas, R. Q., 2023. OlssonF/NEON-forecast-challenge-workshop: EFI NEON Forecast Challenge Workshop (v1.0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8316966

Virginia Ecoforecast Reservoir Analysis Forecasting Challenge introductory tutorial video series: